Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics
Pomona College, Claremont, CA, 91711
Ph.D. in Economics, Yale University, 1971
M.Phil. in Economics, Yale University, 1969
B.S. with Distinction in Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College, 1967
Fletcher Jones Professor, Pomona College, 1981–
Associate Professor, University of Houston, 1978–1981
Visiting Associate Professor, Rice University, 1978–1981
Assistant Professor, Cowles Foundation and Yale University, 1971–1978
Academic Papers (75+)
Trade Books (3)
Software Programs (7)
Expert Analysis and Testimony
Josh, Jo, Chaska, Cory, Cameron, Claire
In the media
The Motley Fool: “Catchy Symbol, Stronger Stock?”
By Todd Wenning, Oct 4, 2006.
Do stocks with clever ticker symbols outperform or underperform the overall market? Gary Smith investigated the
performance of stocks with catchy tickers from 1984 to 2004, and found that "a portfolio of stocks considered most clever returned 23.6% annually, compared with 12.3% for a hypo-thetical index of all NYSE & Nasdaq stocks."
The Motley Fool: “The Most Admired Companies Beat the Market,” by John Reeves, March 6, 2007.
Do great companies make great investments? A study by Jeff Anderson and Gary Smith shows that the market's most-admired companies - like Starbucks -- do in fact have a rich history of outperformance.
Forbes Investment Guide: “Your Castle's P/E Ratio,” by Stephane Fitch, June 5, 2006.
You buy stocks based on their price/earnings ratio and dividend yield. You buy bonds based on their yield to maturity. But you buy real estate based on ... curb appeal? Before you consider how a house looks from the street, the prestige of the address or the Batchelder fireplace inside, follow the money. Figure out the capitalization rate, namely, the investment return that your property generates versus its fair market value today.
New York Times, "Some New Math on Homes"
by Damon Darlin, April 1, 2006.
In a paper Gary Smith presented at the Brookings Institution, "Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?" they said that even though prices had risen rapidly and some buyers unrealistically expected the trend to continue, "the bubble is not, in fact, a bubble in most of these areas." They argued that the value of a home is determined by the rent it
The San Diego Union Tribune: “Is there a bubble? Do the math."
by Damon Darlin, April 16, 2006.
Gary Smith found that applying economic
tools to buy a four-bedroom Craftsman home sharpened his thinking and guided two years of research into whether there is a housing bubble.
Science News Online: “Death Waits for No One: Deferred Demises Take a Couple of Hits,” Bruce Bower, June 5, 2004; Vol. 165, No. 23, p. 356. Two new reports challenge the idea, which has been promoted in a series of high-profile studies, that elderly people suffering from serious physical illnesses can prolong their lives just long enough to experience a personally meaningful event, such as a birthday or a religious holiday. An analysis of California death records from 1985 through 2000, conducted by economist Gary Smith of Pomona College in Claremont, Calif., indicates that elderly Asian immigrants don't put off dying until…
Sports Illustrated: “SI Flashback: That Old Black Magic,” posted online Aug 23, 2003, the article appeared in the January 21, 2002 issue of Sports Illustrated, By Alexander Wolff Special reporting by Albert Chen and Tim Smith. Millions of superstitious readers -- and many athletes -- believe that an appearance on Sports Illustrated's cover is the kiss of death. But is there really such a thing as the SI Jinx?… To frame it better we rang up professor Gary Smith, who teaches statistics at Pomona College and has conducted many studies on sports. He tells us that to conduct a scientifically sound study of the Jinx, we'd have to parse the career of every cover subject to find out not only his lifetime statistics but..
MoneyCentral.msn: The Speculator: “Avoid the pits by following the pendulum,” by Victor
Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner. May 30, 2002. NBA teams ride the shooter with the hot hand, and baseball players live and die with hitting streaks. Streaks in stocks, sports, casinos and war promise great riches. Sometimes the hand is hot and sometimes its not. But are these examples of hot hands real, or do they just seem that way because
of the vagaries of memory? Gary Smith looks at horseshoe pitchers hot hands. He found that the number of double ringers pitched showed strong persistence. He disagrees with Gilovich's basketball data and says his analysis of horseshoe pitching indicates that players do have modest hot and cold spells…
Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, I:2006 by Gary and Margaret Smith. Housing Prices have risen by about 50 percent in the past five years, and more than 100 percent in some hot markets. Evidence of a housing bubble has been suggestive but indirect, in that it does not address the key question of whether housing prices are justified by the value of the services provided by a home. We estimate the fundamental value of a home from rent data. We then use this procedure to estimate the fundamental value of homes in ten urban housing markets using a unique set of rent and sale price...